China Customs Statistics: China's aluminum exports in July increased by 18% year-on-year
According to Chinese customs data, China exported 519,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July, an increase of 18% year-on-year and an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous month. In the first 7 months of this year, China exported 3.234 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, an increase of 12.3% year-on-year. Exports of aluminum-related products continued to remain high in July, mainly due to the depreciation of the RMB. The offshore renminbi futures price continued to depreciate from around 6.4 in mid-June to the beginning of August. The low level once touched 6.9121. Thanks to the depreciation of the renminbi, the orders for aluminum plate, strip, foil and aluminum profile companies continued to improve. Aluminum exports in July Most of them come from orders signed in mid to late June and mid to early July. In terms of breakdown, SMM predicts that in July, the export volume of primary aluminum is 3 thousand tons, the export volume of aluminum alloy is 52,000 tons, the export volume of aluminum strips and sheets is 264,000 tons, the export volume of aluminum foil is 107,000 tons, and aluminum bars, rods and profiles. The export volume is 78,000 tons, aluminum pipe is 12,000 tons, and aluminum wire is 3,000 tons.
Analysis of the development status and future development trend of China's aluminum industry in 2019
The content of aluminum in the earth's crust is second only to oxygen and silicon, ranking third, and it is the most abundant metal element in the earth's crust. The development of the three important industries of aviation, construction, and automobile requires that the material properties have the unique characteristics of aluminum and its alloys, which greatly facilitates the production and application of this new metal aluminum, and its application is extremely wide. China's rapid economic growth has generated huge demand for aluminum, which has promoted the rapid development of the domestic aluminum industry. China’s aluminum industry started very late, but with China’s large-scale advancement of the construction of social infrastructure and the rapid development of the industrial process, a broad road has been opened for the consumer market of aluminum profiles, and a large number of excellent profile manufacturers have emerged. , The aluminum material industry is rapidly developing in depth in the fields of construction and industry. Based on China’s reform and opening up and the development of distinctive socialism, the real estate industry has sprung up in China. As one of the main industries supporting China’s national economy, its development rapidly drives the building materials industry chain, machinery industry, etc. A large number of necessary application materials, especially the construction of new houses in first- and second-tier cities, the renovation of old houses in second- and third-tier cities, and rural urbanization measures have greatly promoted the consumer market for construction aluminum profiles, and aluminum profile manufacturers follow closely With the pace of national policy, all kinds of doors, windows and curtain wall profiles shine in the audience. Working hard at this node has made the development of building profiles in the field of production and consumption reach an unprecedented height. Except for construction profiles, aluminum profiles are all included in the scope of industrial aluminum profiles. China is in the mid-stage of industrialization and is moving towards a moderately developed country. Various industries are developing vigorously. At present, there are 91% of the departments need to use aluminum, such as all-aluminum body, aluminum profile home furnishing, etc. have become hot topics, which shows how much aluminum profile accounts for in social construction.
1. Analysis of the development status of China's aluminum industry
The "Analysis Report on the Status Quo of China's Aluminum Product Industry Industry Competition and Investment Trends in 2020-2026" released by Zhiyan Consulting shows that the output of alumina and electrolytic aluminum in 2019 were 72.47 million tons and 35.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, 0.9%, 52.52 million tons of aluminum output, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate in a weak trend. The annual average spot price was 13,960 yuan/ton, down 2.1% year-on-year.
China's aluminum production and year-on-year growth trend in each month of 2019
National aluminum production and year-on-year growth from January to December 2019
Cumulative national aluminum production and year-on-year growth from January to December 2019
In 2019, the total import and export trade of aluminum products was 26.3 billion US dollars, down 5.5% year-on-year, of which imports were 10.7 billion US dollars, up 2.5% year-on-year, and exports were 15.6 billion US dollars, down 10.4% year-on-year. In 2019, my country exported 5.15 million tons of aluminum products, down 1.6% year-on-year, total exports fell 7.2%, and the unit price of aluminum exports fell 5.7% year-on-year.
Analysis of the total import and export trade of aluminum products in 2019
Analysis of my country's aluminum exports in 2019
3. Analysis of the status quo of aluminum processing
Aluminum processing is the production of various forms of products from aluminum ingots through various processes and processes such as casting, rolling (or extrusion) and surface treatment, which are used in transportation, construction, packaging, electrical, mechanical equipment and other industries. According to the different processing technology, aluminum deformed products can be divided into two categories: aluminum sheet, strip, foil and aluminum profile. The rolling process produces aluminum sheet, strip and foil, which are widely used in various fields of the national economy; the extrusion process produces aluminum profiles, which are mainly used in the construction industry. According to the different processing technology, aluminum processed products can be divided into two categories: one is aluminum profile produced by melting and extrusion process; the other is aluminum strip and aluminum foil produced by hot rolling and cold rolling process. Among them, aluminum profiles are mainly used in construction and industrial fields, while aluminum plates, strips and foils are mainly used in home appliances and food and beverage fields.
At present, there is a big gap between China's annual per capita aluminum consumption and per capita aluminum stock compared with developed countries, and the consumption potential is huge. From the perspective of specific consumption areas, the consumption of aluminum in the fields of construction, structure, automobiles, packaging and furniture has a big gap with foreign countries, and there is great potential for development. The results of expanding the application of aluminum have gradually emerged. The proportion of aluminum alloy fuel tank trucks in the country has reached 8%; the output of aluminum alloy building templates has shown explosive growth. In addition, breakthroughs have been made in the commercial application of aluminum-air batteries, and the future application prospects are unlimited. The commercial application of aluminum-air batteries will push up the peak of primary aluminum consumption in China and even the world.
In 2019, the Shanghai aluminum companies achieved a profit of 40.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Among them, aluminum mining and processing achieved a profit of 180 million yuan and 19.5 billion yuan, down 75% and 2.1% year-on-year. In the whole year, the release of compliant electrolytic aluminum production capacity was not as good as expected, and natural disasters, safety accidents and other incidents caused production cuts. The contradiction between supply and demand was eased. The main production costs of electricity, alumina, and carbon anodes fell. Aluminum smelting profit was 20.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7 year-on-year %, has become the main factor driving the improvement of the aluminum industry.
Profits and year-on-year growth of Chinese aluminum companies in 2019
my country's aluminum industry must closely follow the pace of development of the industrial materials industry
China's aluminum processing industry is facing a series of problems: overcapacity; low concentration of aluminum processing industry; insufficient aluminum application breadth; insufficient product deep processing; incomplete aluminum recycling system; few product varieties and low quality; product structure needs to be Further improvement; weak technological innovation and independent development capabilities; insufficient government macro-control functions, etc.
The development of global aluminum processing enterprises has shown the following characteristics in recent years: First, aluminum processing enterprises are trying to extend the industrial chain and enter the deep processing field in order to obtain higher product added value; second, with the consumption of resources, energy prices The trend of using recycled aluminum as raw materials to produce aluminum processing products with less energy and resource consumption is becoming more and more obvious; third, the pace of replacing steel with aluminum is getting faster and faster; fourth, targeting emerging markets and developing countries or regions , Especially in China; the fifth is to strengthen innovative research and development, and continuously introduce new products with independent technology.
In the next 5 years, the product variety of aluminum profile manufacturers will continue to increase, the product quality will be more refined, the product added value will be higher, and the product will be more energy-saving and environmentally friendly. Specifically, it is: in the aluminum processing technology, it is developing in a more refined direction; in the aluminum processing equipment, it is developing in the direction of intelligence; in the enterprise construction, it is developing in the direction of large and strong, professional and sophisticated.
With the increase in variety and quality improvement, aluminum will also be more widely used in construction, electricity, automobile manufacturing, home appliances, electronics and mechanical equipment and other fields, and market demand is expected to continue to release. It is estimated that from 2018 to 2023, the annual compound growth rate of global aluminum market demand is about 5%. By 2023, global aluminum market consumption is expected to reach 74.23 million tons.
2018-2023 global aluminum market consumption trend forecast
China’s aluminum profile manufacturers mainly produce mid-to-high-end products, including aluminum profile accessories, radiator aluminum profiles, construction profiles, aluminum alloy profiles for rail transit vehicles, industrial profiles, etc. The application range of industrial aluminum profiles is It is very extensive, mainly distributed in the automotive industry, electronic appliances, aerospace, shipbuilding and other fields; and it is constantly expanding. From these industries, more aluminum profile application industries can be derived, and the production technology is gradually improving. The strength is high, and lighter lean tubes have been developed on the basis of industrial aluminum profiles. It is just that the core technology of some ultra-high-end aluminum profiles is temporarily in the hands of the United States. At present, it still needs to be imported from the United States. Profiles account for 50% of China's total consumption of aluminum profiles, and the proportion of consumption will become higher and higher.
The country also attaches great importance to technological innovation. Through continuous adjustment and improvement of policies and guidelines, the aluminum profile industry is encouraged to research and develop in the production process, and it supports the export of high-performance, high-tech and high-value-added aluminum profile deep-processed products. Introduce talents and related enterprises, support various technological development and research in the non-ferrous metal industry, guide enterprises to improve energy efficiency and increase policy support for aluminum enterprises, such as issuing stocks, issuing bank loans and a series of measures, The purpose is to be able to master the core technology on its own, so that China will become a world power from a large country in the production and consumption of aluminum profiles, especially in the special high-end aluminum profile products from imports.
With the support of national policies, the industrial structure has been continuously adjusted, and the area of aluminum consumption has been continuously expanded. Consumers have higher requirements for the quality of aluminum products, and market competition has become increasingly fierce. Manufacturers of aluminum profiles must work hard on product types, quality, and added value in order to remain invincible in market competition. The aluminum deep processing industry has become more and more important. If aluminum companies do not innovate in production equipment and technology, they will face difficulties in terms of rising costs, increased energy consumption, and shortage of funds, which may be difficult to maintain.
Under such circumstances, many aluminum material manufacturers quickly adjusted their operational policies, conformed to national policies and the direction of industry development, worked hard in production technology, quality, management, and sales, and quickly moved closer to large brands, large-scale and comprehensive strengths. Integrate internal resources, design a set of production, research and development, and sales plans that are in line with itself, and improve from all aspects, occupy the market with high-production technology and high-quality profile products, and comprehensively enhance the market competitiveness of the company.
The current social development closely revolves around environmental protection. Products from all walks of life will do everything possible to start with energy saving. Whether it is aluminum profiles used in rail transit, electronics and aerospace, they will be light in weight, high in strength, low in price, and pollution-free. As the main development direction, aluminum profile manufacturers should be guided by new energy, keep up with the pace of industry development, and expand the application space of aluminum profiles to the extreme
Analysis of China's aluminum production, demand, inventory, import, export and price trends in the first half of 2019
The output of electrolytic aluminum remained stable. From January to May of 2019, the global electrolytic aluminum production was 264 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year; the output of electrolytic aluminum in markets other than China was approximately 115 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. China's market output accounts for more than 50%, and output has a greater impact on global output.
Global electrolytic aluminum production capacity distribution map (2018)
From January to May 2019, overseas electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly (unit: 10,000 tons)
China: Electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to decline slightly throughout the year. In the first half of 2019, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the effective production capacity of the company was generally stable, and the operating rate gradually recovered after the year.
Electrolytic aluminum production capacity and effective production capacity (10000 tons)
China's monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic aluminum
At present, domestic aluminum consumption accounts for more than 50% of global consumption, which has a greater impact on global aluminum demand. Among them, the main consumption areas of domestic aluminum include construction, transportation, electronic power and so on.
China's domestic aluminum consumption accounts for over 50% of the world
The absolute demand for aluminum in the construction and transportation sectors is large
Since the supply-side reform in 2017, electrolytic aluminum production capacity began to decline in 2018, and it is expected that production capacity will continue to decline slightly in 2019. At the same time, in terms of inventory, since the end of the Spring Festival and the beginning of construction in March, the electrolytic aluminum inventory has dropped by more than 700,000 tons from a high point, and the inventory has been de-allocated. With the relaxation of Sino-US relations in the second half of the year, the downstream aluminum consumption will see structural improvements (real estate is expected to stabilize, the automotive sector will improve, and the use of aluminum in the power sector will increase). It is expected that this year, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply and demand will have a gap of about 660,000 tons, and the supply and demand structure will improve. At the same time, we expect that after the completion of capacity replacement and transactions, it is expected that new electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be extremely limited after 2019, the supply-side structure is expected to continue to be optimized, and the fundamentals of the aluminum industry are expected to continue to improve.
Alumina pressure is magnified, there is little room for fundamental support to fall in June, and the medium and long-term pressure is significant
In May 2019, the average daily output and operating capacity of alumina continued to decline. In May (31 days), China’s alumina (metallurgical grade) output was 5.97 million tons, down 1.39% year-on-year. The annual operating capacity was 70.303 million tons, down 336,000 tons from the previous month, down 990,600 tons year-on-year, and the average daily output was 193,000 tons. A month-on-month decrease of 1 million tons, China's alumina production from January to May 2019 was 29.564 million tons, an increase of 4.19% year-on-year. The output of alumina in June is expected to be 5.729 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.97%. The annual operating capacity is 69.702 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.883 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 600,900 tons.
It is expected that the daily domestic alumina production will decline for four consecutive months in June. Regardless of imports, the supply gap is expected to be around 150,000 tons in June. Since mid-May, the alumina import profit window has opened. It is expected that alumina imports will increase in June, and the alumina supply gap is expected to be within 100,000 tons. Considering that Hydro will resume production soon, imports are expected to increase in July-August, and domestic alumina plants will start production and resume production. The gap will gradually narrow and even turn to excess in July-August. Taking into account the fundamental changes, there is little room for the alumina price to fall under the support of shortage in June, but the medium and long-term pressure is significant.
China's alumina export profit and loss (yuan/ton, USD/ton)
The AlTaweelah alumina plant project under EGA launched: Emirates GlobalAluminium issued a statement on its official website stating that the AlTaweelah alumina project was officially put into production. The project cost 300 million US dollars and is located in the Khalifa Industrial Park in Abu Dhabi. The annual production capacity is about 2 million tons, which can replace part of the import volume by then, which can complete EGA's alumina industry in the UAE. At present, all its alumina consumption is imported. The project's output in 2019 is expected to be around 800,000 tons. During the year, overseas alumina newly expanded production capacity of 3.65 million tons per year, in addition to the UAE 2 million tons, Hongfa Winning Indonesia 1 million tons and JISCO Jamaica 650,000 tons.
China's electrolytic aluminum production was 2.89 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.08%. The total domestic production of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 11.523 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.42%. In the first April of 2019, it continued to be affected by the loss and reduction of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises from June 2018 to February 2019, so that the scale of operating capacity remained relatively Low level. Although some production capacity has gradually resumed since April, it has limited contribution to the overall output in April. At the end of April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 36.23 million tons, and the industry average operating rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the end of March. After entering May (31 days), the contribution of resumption of production to production gradually increased. The output of electrolytic aluminum in May is expected to be 3.025 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%, and the reduction in output growth rate has narrowed. With the consumption stable, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory level is expected to fall to around 1.3 million tons by the end of May.
Electrolytic aluminum inventories fell more than 60,000 tons for four consecutive weeks. Up to now in the second quarter, 600,000 tons have been sent to the warehouse, a record high. Negative growth in the supply of electrolytic aluminum to warehouses in the first half of 2019 should be the main force. It is expected that starting from the third quarter, supply will continue to increase slightly, and consumption will exert force and become the main force for destocking. For the whole year, the depot is expected to exceed 600,000 tons, and the depot will be reduced by 500,000 tons last year. Alumina is expected to have a short supply in June, and it will gradually narrow or even turn to excess from July to August. Alumina is expected to have little room to fall in June, but the pressure in the medium and long term is still significant. Due to environmental protection in the north, the price of bauxite has risen slightly. In the long run, due to the reform of the supply side and the improvement of the supply and demand structure of electrolytic aluminum, alumina production capacity is still being released rapidly, and the overall situation is weak. Looking at 2019, electrolytic aluminum continues to destock, and consumption is more interesting. Alumina has become surplus. One strong and one weak will help the profit of electrolytic aluminum to improve. Enterprises with high coal self-sufficiency rate and high hydropower self-sufficiency rate benefit relatively. In the medium and long term, we are firmly optimistic about the role of supply-side reforms in regulating the entire aluminum market.
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